Our Long Term FutureWe are living at a special time in the earth's existence. It is the moment of transition from animal to man. This is not unlike a light bulb turning on after being off for millions of years and which will remain on for millions (billions) of years yet to come.
We call this period --- history --- the chronicle of changes made to culture and civilization producing an end result, a proper state for man to exist in. Where there are no meaningful changes, there is no history and this is the normal condition of sentient beings anywhere in the universe. Very old civilizations generally remain the same, there being a finite number of basic things to learn. I mean here that civilization in the future, say, 100,000 years from now will not be substantially different than the future as it will be 1,000,000,000 years from now.
With the foregoing in mind, unless the "lightbulb blows" when turned on (a nuclear disaster ?), our future on this planet is assured. And it will be a fine place to be some day. We won't see it. But it WILL come.
There is one other factor which is minor but should not be overlooked.
The entire galaxy has been completely explored for certainly many tens of millions of years. There are an assortment of beings presently observing us and this is the normal state of affairs anywhere else too. They're not going to do anything drastic however (for reasons not here explored). So you can forget about "salvation" from the stars. I'm putting this in the 'mix' so that no one will say in the future, "He didn't notice this fact". The idea that we are not under observation is, to me, absolutely preposterous, just as the idea that we are under observation is utterly preposterous to mainstream 'science'. And in the same vein, given the same 'evidence, I would not even discuss the absence of alien observers just as others will not even discuss their presence.
The Good NewsUnder the best of circumstances, we're in big trouble. There are too many people on the earth and it's going to get worse. How much worse depends on what we do now.
This is what to do. "Come with me, if you want to live ..."
If the type of government that I have devised and examined previously is in place, we can expect a minimum disruption of civilization in the next century.
By minimum disruption, I mean that the United States and western Europe should weather the "storm" pretty well (our population is not increasing at nearly the rate of less developed countries), but other places should experience what I am here naming "punctuated mass death" as part of their standard living conditions.
In this state, the earth will 'lose' 10 million people here, 50 million there, 25 million in yet another place as a yearly occurence. This must occur when the limits of food production are reached in the third world. Note: The earth adds ~80 million extra people per year so ~80 million extra will have to go PER YEAR. The chief means of death will be, of course, starvation.
Currently, about 1-200,000 of what we would call 'children' die each day on earth. This will increase greatly and disproportionately because children can't acquire food as easily as adults or compete with them for it. Also, as a matter of historical record, people tend to kill female babies when overpopulation is obvious. All this is not horrible from the long term perspective - children generally do their fair share of the dying in any culture (including ours) and nothing can be done about it (their obligation is to Gauss).
Punctuated mass death should become the way of life for most of the world around the third quarter of the next century (~ 2050 - 2075). At current rates the earth's population would be in the neighborhood of 40 billion by ~2100 and I see absolutely no way to support that many 'food eaters'.
Some 'demographers' see the population leveling off at around 10 - 12 billion, then declining. For the record LEVELING OFF = MASS DEATH. Don't kid yourself - even the "good news" is bad.
The population of the USA may go to 1/2 billion by the end of the century but less seems more reasonable given its present state. (Which is showing some, actually unprecedented, political conditions conducive to my kind of government.)
A major transition is occuring in the minds of politicians.
There is a race ... evil vs. technology.
These people (the entire government) are very close to replacement. You only need a system to replace them with. I'm ready to do the. I work cheap ... ; )
There are some other good things happening in the midst of the bad (even though it's like pulling teeth).
The assimilation of cultures into mainstream Western culture continues apace and is scheduled for completion in ~ 100-300 more years. (Yes, it DOES have a schedule.) To see what I mean:
Revue ... Two differing cultures are at social equilibrium when the major mathematical (applicable statistical/probabilistic) curves approximately coincide, i.e. if 55% of whites do something and 55% of blacks do the same thing and 55% of latinos do the same thing then, with regard to that particular thing, they are all in "social equilibrium". It doesn't matter what the "thing" is.
A cultures' state is analogous to temperature. The more advanced culture can be assigned a "colder" temperature and the less advanced a "higher" temperature. (Don't email complaints because this idea has been advanced by numerous others - from every culture.) When two cultures of differing temperature interact the colder one gets hotter and the hotter one gets colder until social equilibrium is reached. It is important to note that the sole factor in reaching equilibrium is the rate of interaction. No interaction (insulation) means no change means also no problems. Maximum interaction means rapid obtainment of equilibrium at the expense of many problems (this is what we are experiencing in USA).
The "problems" consist mainly in the loss of one's cultural identity and concomittantly one's autonomy which is considered the most precious possession of any sentient entity (the right to do as one pleases in all private and most public matters).
Hence, the more advanced culture considers itself demeaned and the less advanced stripped of its identity since it is expected to adopt the more advanced culture as its own at a rate faster than would be otherwise acceptable. (Where a more advanced culture is, is where the less advanced will be at some future date on its own. So it is a matter of rate rather than state.)
Incidentally, this is one reason they (aliens) won't do anything ... interaction between non-equilibrium cultures causes more problems than it solves ... though within the context of "humans only" it's absolutely necessary since we are confined to the same limited planet.
It is critical to the rest of the world that the USA adopt a form of government like that proposed elsewhere on this site. Failure to do so will result in the certain and eventual collapse of the USA and subsequent catastrophic collapse of everything else. It is certain for philosophical reasons ...
"That which is imperfect must at length fail." - Ebtx
Things will be bad next century. If this country goes bad it will become a Wes Craven nightmare (maybe even a "Night of the Living Dead"). Which leads us to ...
The Bad NewsAt the other extreme, instead of "punctuated mass death", we shall have a catastrophic 'die-off'. If this occurs, around the end of the century (21st), about twenty billion people will die in a single year, i.e. about half the earth's population. Not in the USA, but mainly throughout the third world where population is strung out to its limits.
This will be brought about by the collapse of the farming/food distribution mechanism which will have evolved in a peacetime environment to accomodate the burgeoning population. When some come to realize that the inevitable is going to happen, the panic will set in and the food mechanisms will break catastrophically. Force will be tried in order to maintain the flow of food but force is anathema to farming.
Gunfire is nails driven into a coffin. It seals the fate of anyone dependent on eating regularly ... i.e. everybody.
You see, you can't drive a tractor when someone is shooting at you and you can't obtain a maximun crop yield when the food is "harvested" by starving millions at the merest sign of bearing fruit. Panic kills crops faster than locusts. This is why, in one respect, war is good. It disallows population "bloating".
The severity of the next century is entirely dependent on the population figures. If the population stabilized today at ~6 billion, the earth's potential problems in the next century would also stabilize. It's as simple as that.
I have an elementary theory along these lines. It is this ...
Humanity, as a whole, cannot, in principle, respond to abstract information. It can only take action based on concrete information.This means that if a crowd of millions of people is walking toward a cliff, they will continue walking in the direction of the cliff even when they know they're going to die because the "knowledge of a future state" is abstract information. However, the "act of falling off the cliff" is concrete information to which they may respond (by growing wings?). If this is so, and I believe it is, man cannot learn to control his population until and unless he has suffered catastrophically, in actuality, from this cause.
Some countries will survive this die-off by seeing others, actually, dying. For instance, I would expect the USA, Canada, Western Europe and Japan to survive intact and a few others might escape relatively unscathed. Places like Nigeria, India, probably China, Mexico are more than likely ... doomed.
I have visions of a earthen wall along the Rio Grande River manned by machine gun nests to keep out hoards of people begging to take their children in and feed them. Not armies (a man-made berm wouldn't be effective for this), but rather crowds of dazed, confused and starving people ambling toward "the place where they have food" as in "Night of the Living Dead". PS. This is a serious movie, hence its popularity.
On the Home FrontBecause the Constitution of the United States is fundamentally flawed, it must necessarily fail. And it will do so, undoubtedly, at the most inopportune moment, i.e. just when it is needed most (around 2075). This could be the most interesting time in the earth's history. All this occurs just when man's aquisition of abstract knowledge has gone ballistic (the learning curve is about vertical).
Very interesting. And well timed ... by whom? ... by the subconscious mind of man in general. Yes, we all look at one another and size up the situation. We all know the basics of what is to come before it comes. You allready know about everything I've been talking about (subconsciously). Your mind is much too powerful to have missed the obvious (and most of the subtleties as well). You can take this paragraph to the bank.In the USA, the worst case scenario is as follows:
Due to population, sociological and political pressures, the constitution fails and a second civil war occurs. (This is what I most fear as it will bring down the entire planet like a house of cards resulting in the 20 billion deaths in one year.)
A civil war will immediately degenerate into a race war (if it doesn't actually start as one).
The following chess match will occur with faultless precision:
What a horrible thing and all so easily avoidable ...All that is required is the bottom/up government I have already described as a replacement for the present top/down government (which merely masquerades as bottom/up). But this is an "abstraction" which would have to be grasped and acted upon within in the next few decades if it is to do any good.
I hope that I am wrong about your ability to grasp and act on abstractions.
An afterthought :
There is a strange, twisted piece of logic here ...