Date : 06/02/35
My Stats
the trend is up

T   
his last month my "unique visitor" total topped 50,000 for the first time. It appears that the traffic to my site doubles about every two years. If it were to extend in this manner indefinitely ... and ... I live to be 75 ... I'll be almost famous.

My yearly rate is then 600,000 people per year right now so that by this time in 2005, I'll be at around 1.2 million.
then
... 2.4 in '07
... 4.8 in '09
... 9.6 in '11
... 19.2 in '13
... 38.4 in 2015 ... and by then I'd be 67 years old. Is this "almost famous"?

Continuing on ...

... 76.8 in 2017
... 153.6 in 2019
... 307 in 2021
... 614 in 2023 ... My 75th birthday.
... 1.23 billion in 2025
... 2.46 billion per year in 2027
... 4.9 in 2029
... 9.8 billion in 2031 ... at which time I'd be 83 years old and probably senile ... more likely long dead. But I'd have the entire planet's ear ;o)

Obviously this can't continue ...

But I think it may still reach a few million per year ... then it must necessarily taper off sharply. There will be some kind of saturation level. This should be interesting and should occur in a time reasonable enough that I might expect to see it. My personal prediction is that it will level off before 10 million per year is reached. This is the number of units sold by Steven Hawking of his tome "A Brief History of Time". So there must be at least on the order of 10 millon people on Earth seriously interested in scientific subjects. Probably there are a lot more. Certainly, one billion would be an overestimate. One hundred million might be the top end for any audience in this general venue.

One thing is obvious to me immediately. I must generate some revenue in the next few years just to afford the bandwidth. This means I will have banner adds along about '09 ... or ... I won't be able to afford the price of fame ;o)

Of course, I will have to keep generating content. And it must be something that students will find interesting and useful. So I have devised a strategy of tackling difficult subjects in extended projects ... things that I can pursue for many web pages ... something like my art folder. This is very popular I think because it gives functional explanations for the various aspects of art which people find to be both clear and concise. If I can do the same in other areas, I shall be able to continue my growth trend as long as I survive.

I am thinking of a folder like ... "Searching for Schrodinger's Wave Equation". This is a long term commitment. It really should take dozens of pages to investigate everything involved. If after reading this file, the average person without a formal scientific education came away with a clear and mathematical understanding of that cornerstone of modern physics ... I will be able to count on lots of traffic by the type of people I wish to atract.




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